A Polarized America goes to the Polls: An Analysis of the 2016 US Elections
By Visiting Professor William Chandler, Professor emeritus of University of California, San Diego.
2016 is an unconventional, even unprecedented, election in recent US politics. Why?
The electorate is highly polarized. Gridlock has replaced compromise. Talk of tribal warfare has become common. An atmosphere of pessimism pervades the election in which both major party candidates are burdened by unfavorable public opinion ratings. Donald J. Trump as candidate is highly unusual, a real estate mogul and TV star, who has dominated media attention. His convincing victory in the Republican primaries ended with his de facto hostile take-over of the party. It also demonstrated his dystopian messages of disaster, failure, and a “rigged” system, for which he has blamed incompetent leadership (i.e., Obama + Clinton). Will this strategy also work in the general election?
Because the presidential contest occurs simultaneously with congressional elections, ticket-splitting is frequent. Beyond the presidential contest, crucial congressional races in the Senate and House will determine the balance of power in federal policy-making for the next four years. Due to the unpopularity of both Clinton and Trump, will ticket-splitting make a significant difference to the election outcome?
How a President gets elected is defined by the Constitution. The winner must gain a majority in the Electoral College. Both parties know they must win in the competitive “battleground states”. Strategically each candidate is targeting distinctive demographic groups. Can Trump expand beyond white working class men in order to win the mid-western “rust belt”? By contrast, can Clinton broaden her base by appealing to independents and moderate Republicans who are disenchanted with Trump, especially in the populous suburbs?
November 8th -- Will it be a crucial turning point for America, Europe and the world?
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